Canada Housing Major News Roundup Authoritative · Verified · Neutral
Week 4, February 2026 · Data sourced from official releases (BILD/CMHC/CREA/etc.)BILD’s February 24 report shows GTA new home sales reached only 269 units in January 2026 (184 detached, 85 condo), down 36% from January 2025 and 80% below the 10-year January average of 1,339 units – the lowest January on record. Inventory edged up to 20,557 units.
📊 Analyst Commentary Edward Jegg (Altus Group) / Justin Sherwood (BILD)
“The GTA new home market started 2026 as weakly as it ended 2025, once again setting a new low for the month.” — Edward Jegg, Altus Group Research Manager
BILD COO Justin Sherwood warned that prolonged weakness will impact jobs and the broader economy, urging the federal government to quickly deliver on promised development charge reductions and tax policy clarity.
📌 Other Major Housing News This Week
CMHC: January National Housing Starts SAAR Falls 15% to 238,049 Units
238,049 units SAAR (–15% MoM)
254,794 units 6-month trend (–3.5%, fourth consecutive monthly decline)
Actual urban starts (≥10,000 pop.) reached 16,088 units (+1% YoY). Regional: Vancouver +37%, Toronto –2%, Montréal –44%.
📉 Takeaway: Deputy Chief Economist Tania Bourassa-Ochoa noted: “The six-month trend has now declined for four straight months. Trade uncertainty, geopolitical risks, high construction costs, weak demand, and rising inventory will continue to constrain starts. Near-term supply improvement remains unlikely.”
CREA: January National Home Sales Drop 5.8% Month-over-Month
–5.8% SAAR MoM / –16.2% actual YoY
$652,941 national average price (–2.6% YoY)
4.9 months national inventory
New listings surged +7.3% MoM; MLS® HPI –0.9% MoM / –4.9% YoY. Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart attributed the drop mainly to severe snowstorms in central and southwestern Ontario.
🌨️ Takeaway: The market still expects pent-up first-time buyer demand to gradually release in 2026.
CIBC Deputy Chief Economist: Condo Market “Dysfunction” Will Force Industry Change
Nearly 19,000 units unsold completed new condos nationwide (~9,000 in Vancouver + Toronto)
89% of lenders see significant refinancing risk on development land (CBRE survey)
Benjamin Tal stated: “Prices remain too high to buy, yet too low to build — the market has broken.”
💡 Takeaway: Governments are expected to cut development charges; future projects likely shift toward larger family-oriented units. Presale thresholds may drop from 80%. 2026 unlikely to see a full recovery, but lays foundation for long-term structural change.
Royal LePage 2026 Commercial Report: Vacancy Rates Vary Widely – Montréal Highest
5.2% Montréal (national high)
2.1% Toronto Downtown (national low)
Calgary 3.8%, Vancouver Downtown 3.6%
Based on late-2025 data. Vancouver downtown office leasing remains soft, but federal return-to-office mandates (executives 5 days/week, others 4 days/week starting July) expected to support demand.
Federal Build Canada Homes Act: Agency Becomes Crown Corporation with Land Expropriation Powers
Housing Minister Gregor Robertson tabled Bill C-20, converting Build Canada Homes into a Crown corporation with land expropriation rights and expanded private-sector partnership powers. Canada Lands Company to be merged in. Critics (SFU’s Andy Yan, Ivey’s Mike Moffatt, NDP) note absence of specific construction targets / KPIs.
Nova Scotia: Housing Minister Gains Power to Direct Halifax Infrastructure Construction
Minister John White introduced legislation granting authority to direct HRM and Halifax Water to build housing infrastructure, while extending temporary service boundary modification powers to November 2028. White calls it a “backstop”; opposition calls it municipal overreach.
📋 Key Data Summary – January 2026
| Indicator | Value | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| GTA New Home Sales | 269 units | –36% YoY / –80% vs 10-yr avg | BILD / Altus Group |
| GTA New Home Inventory | 20,557 units | Flat MoM | BILD |
| National Housing Starts SAAR | 238,049 units | –15% MoM | CMHC |
| National Home Sales (SAAR) | — | –5.8% MoM / –16.2% YoY | CREA |
| National Average Price | $652,941 | –2.6% YoY | CREA |
| National Unsold Completed Condos | Nearly 19,000 units | ~9,000 in Vancouver + Toronto | CIBC / REMI |
| Commercial Vacancy (Montréal) | 5.2% | National high | Royal LePage |
🔮 Weekly Market Summary & Outlook
📉 Demand Side
GTA new home sales at historic lows; national resale activity dragged by weather, but surging new listings hint at improving supply potential.
🏗️ Supply Side
CMHC clear: near-term supply improvement “unlikely.” CIBC warns condo construction “near zero.”
🏛️ Policy Moves & Investment Notes
- ✅ Federal: Build Canada Homes gains land expropriation power, but lacks KPIs – watch implementation closely.
- ✅ Provincial: Nova Scotia “backstop” powers accelerate Halifax supply.
- ✅ Industry call: Cut development charges to restore confidence.
- Investment notes: 2026 may open a window for first-time buyers; office demand could firm with return-to-office rules; condo developers should monitor charge relief & product shift (larger units, faster delivery).
📅 Short-Term Outlook (2026)
CREA remains optimistic: pent-up demand will release. CMHC: starts likely continue declining into 2028. CIBC’s Tal: condo market sees no quick fix in 2026, but structural realignment (larger units, stronger equity) begins.
📚 Primary Sources (Direct Links)
2026 Commercial Report (Feb 26–27)
Federal Act (Feb 5) · Nova Scotia Bill (Feb 27)
Condo Market Analysis (Feb 26)
