CEC Express Entry: The February “Dip” in CRS Scores – 2026 Momentum & Domestic Shift
📉 February CEC Forecast: Low 500s in Sight, Sub‑500 Possible?
Base case: CEC cutoff 503–507 | 5,000–6,000 ITAs [citation:1]
IRCC’s post-October rhythm (PNP → CEC → optional category) strongly suggests a CEC draw in the first half of February. With the 501–600 band down to ~14,911 after January’s 14,000 ITAs, downward pressure continues [citation:1][citation:6].
✅ Sub‑500 scenario
- Another 5,000+ ITA CEC draw in early Feb
- Second large CEC draw in mid‑February
- Cutoff drops 2–3 points per round
⚠️ Stalling scenario
- CEC draw size < 3,000 ITAs
- IRCC pauses CEC or shifts to categories
- Cutoff rebounds to 510–520
🇫🇷 French-Language Draw: Record 8,500 ITAs at CRS 400
Draw #394 – the largest category-based draw in Express Entry history [citation:4][citation:8].
- ✅ 8,500 ITAs issued to French-speaking candidates
- ✅ Minimum CRS 400 (down from 399 in Dec, but volume increased by 2,500)
- ✅ Tie-breaking: Feb 3, 2026
Significance: Canada is reinforcing Francophone immigration outside Quebec with a 12% target by 2029 and $137M Action Plan [citation:4]. French remains the most accessible category for sub‑500 candidates.
🏠 The Rise of “Domestic Selection”: 5% TR Target Fuels CEC
🎯 5% Mandate by 2027
Canada’s temporary residents currently make up 6.2% of the population. The 2026‑2028 Levels Plan aims to reduce this to under 5% by end‑2027 [citation:5][citation:9].
Solution: Convert TRs to PRs without adding new arrivals. CEC is the primary tool – every CEC ITA reduces the TR count while meeting economic targets.
📊 FSW offshore de‑facto freeze
Since late 2025, IRCC has conducted zero Federal Skilled Worker draws. All FHS admissions are now consumed by CEC and category draws [citation:9]. Offshore candidates face extreme wait times unless they qualify for French/PNP.
Two‑stage immigration: temporary → permanent. Candidates with Canadian experience are prioritized for lower settlement risk and established integration [citation:7].
🧮 Express Entry Pool: The 500‑Point Wall & Replenishment
As of February 2, 2026: 238,920 active candidates. The 501‑600 range sits at 14,911 – but replenishment is fierce [citation:6].
| CRS Range | Candidates | Density (per point, approx) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 601–1200 | 423 | – | PNP cleared |
| 501–600 | 14,911 | ~149 | ⬇️ -5,451 since Dec |
| 491–500 | 13,586 | ~1,358 | ⬆️ growing |
| 481–490 | 13,417 | ~1,341 | ⬆️ + |
| 471–480 | 16,617 | ~1,661 | ⬆️ + |
| 451–460 | 15,400 | ~1,540 | ⬆️ |
The density wall: To drop from 500 to 490, IRCC would need to clear ~13,000 candidates in 491‑500 – but new entrants add ~3,000‑4,000 monthly to the 500+ band [citation:1][citation:9]. This explains gradual declines, not cliff drops.
📅 Express Entry 2026: Draws So Far
| Date | Draw Type | ITAs | CRS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6 | French | 8,500 | 400 |
| Feb 3 | PNP | 423 | 749 |
| Jan 21 | CEC | 6,000 | 509 |
| Jan 20 | PNP | 681 | 746 |
| Jan 7 | CEC | 8,000 | 511 |
| Jan 5 | PNP | 574 | 711 |
Total ITAs in 2026: 24,178 – with 14,000 CEC (58%) and 8,500 French (35%) [citation:8].
❓ 20 FAQs – CEC February Dip, CRS Trends & Domestic Selection
📈 Is your CRS score ready for February CEC?
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