Canada’s housing market is undergoing a significant shift, and understanding these trends is crucial for newcomers planning to settle in Canada. The latest data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reveals important insights about housing supply, construction activity, and what this means for your housing journey.
What the May 2026 Data Shows
The six-month trend in housing starts was virtually flat in May, with a slight increase of 0.5% to 258,010 units. This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts for all areas in Canada.
Actual monthly housing starts were down 5.2% year-over-year in centres with a population of 10,000 or more, recording 22,633 units in May compared to 23,879 in May 2025. However, the year-to-date total was 93,644 units, up 3% from the same period in 2025.
Key Trends for Newcomers
1. More Completions, Fewer New Starts
The number of units under construction rose 0.9% to 374,662 in May, and completions increased by 10.6% to 16,880 units. However, approved building permits but not yet started fell 2.4% to 138,842 units.
What this means for you: More homes are being completed in the near term, which could mean more rental and purchase options available. But fewer new starts suggest that supply growth may slow in the next 1–2 years, potentially keeping prices elevated.
2. Regional Differences Matter
| City | YTD Starts Change (Jan–May) | What It Means for Newcomers |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto | Down 12% | Fewer new homes = stronger rental demand, higher competition for purchases |
| Montreal | Up 4% (actual starts +18%) | More new supply coming = better options for buyers and renters |
| Vancouver | Down 7% | Continued supply constraints, high costs persist |
| Calgary | Down 28% | Significant drop, but still more affordable than Toronto or Vancouver |
| Ottawa-Gatineau | +1% (flat) | Steady supply, good option for families seeking affordability |
| Halifax | Down 34% | East coast supply tightening, prices may rise |
3. Single-Family Homes vs. Condos: A Growing Mismatch
Single-detached housing starts are down 8% year-over-year, while multi-unit starts (condos, townhouses) are up 5%. This means the type of housing being built does not match what many families actually need.
What this means for you: If you are looking to buy a house with yard space, your options may become more limited and expensive. Condo inventory could increase, making them a viable option for first-time buyers on a budget.
Provincial Breakdown
Ontario: 26,084 units started year-to-date, up 18% from last year. Ontario is adding more housing than most provinces.
Quebec: 22,125 units, up 5%. Montreal is seeing strong multi-unit construction activity.
British Columbia: 17,283 units, up 15%. B.C. is increasing supply but faces high construction costs.
Alberta: 17,783 units, down 21%. Calgary and Edmonton are cooling from previous highs.
Future Outlook
CMHC forecasts total national housing starts at approximately 247,000 units for 2026, down from the 2025 estimate of 259,000 units. 2027 will decline further to approximately 223,000—below the ten-year average.
Canada still needs approximately 3.5 million additional housing units by 2030. While rental construction remains strong, the decline in single-family starts may make homeownership more challenging for newcomers.
Practical Tips for Newcomers
- Consider emerging cities: Cities like Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo (+106% YTD starts) and Ottawa-Gatineau offer more supply growth and relative affordability.
- Watch the rental market: With fewer new homes being started, rental demand in major cities like Toronto and Vancouver will likely remain strong.
- Plan your purchase timeline: If you are a first-time buyer, the current supply constraints mean prices may stay elevated. Consider condos or townhouses as entry points.
- Research provincial trends: Quebec and Ontario are adding homes faster than other provinces, which could mean better options for your family.
Data Sources
This analysis is based on data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) Starts and Completions Survey. The June housing starts data will be released on July 16 at 8:15 AM ET.